The Daily Difference: Market Update February 3, 2014

The Broncos lost the Super Bowl. We have six more weeks of winter. The market is down for the year. Temperatures are forecast to be in the teens all week. Let’s hope for some good news ……

  • Today > ISM Manufacturing Index(Just Released):  51.3 vs. a consensus 56. No details on individual components yet, but this can’t be good regardless of the components…

The rest of the week will focus on employment:

  • Wednesday > ADP Employment Report: As I’ve said in the past, this number is often a poor indicator of Thursday and Friday’s official numbers. Last month ADP was nowhere close to predicting the terrible reports later in the week.
  • Thursday > Jobless Claims: This number was 19k above consensus last week; however, the more significant indicator is the 4-week moving average, which has dropped 20k over the last month. Most are expecting the 4-week moving average to be flat.
  • Friday > Employment Situation:  THIS is the number everyone will be watching. After expectations were set at roughly 200k new jobs, last month’s report rattled the markets when it came in well below consensus at 74k. The consensus estimate this month is 181k. Keep a close eye on any revisions of last month’s numbers too!
BlogJames O'Brien